foreign policy
12 MARKETS
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%chance
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%chance
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31
0%
December 31, 2026
7%
+4 more
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by...?
December 31, 2026
5%
June 30, 2027
21%
+1 more
Will Trump visit Greenland by...?
October 31
0%
September 30
0%
+2 more
NATO article 5 before 2027?
5%chance
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
3%chance
North Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by...? (direct or indirect)
August 31
0%
December 31
14%
Ukraine election held by...?
December 31, 2025
0%
June 30, 2026
0%
+1 more
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
9%chance
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
3%chance
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
June 30
0%
August 31
0%
+2 more